NYTIMES OPINION TODAY

That she wins re-election as speaker and makes concessions along the way.

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

David Leonhardt Op-Ed Columnist Is Nancy Pelosi in trouble or not? From reading the news coverage, it’s hard to know, because reporters themselves aren’t sure how much danger she is in of losing her role as the House Democratic leader. Here’s what we do know: As many as 22 Democrats who will be in the House come January have signaled some level of opposition to Pelosi, which would be enough to keep her from becoming speaker of the House. Of those 22: 16 signed a letter released yesterday explaining their opposition, including one (Ben McAdams of Utah) whose race remains undecided; five more have publicly announced opposition without signing the letter; and one (Marcia Fudge of Ohio) has also signaled opposition and might run for the speaker post herself. Democrats will have somewhere between 232 and 235 seats in the House next year, depending on the outcome of three close races. Pelosi would need 218 votes to ensure herself a House majority — and victory. With apologies for introducing arithmetic to your morning, 232 (or 235) minus 22 clearly equals fewer than 218. But Pelosi doesn’t necessarily need to win them all over. If some of her critics vote “present” rather than against her, they won’t be counted in the final tally, on either side — and the number she will need for a House majority would drop below 218. Her critics have also left themselves just a bit of wiggle room. Yesterday’s letter calls for “new leadership,” not a new speaker, as Julie Hirschfeld Davis of The Times points out, which means they could ultimately accept other changes to the party’s House structure. Pelosi, for example, could make changes to party rules that would grant more power to rank-and-file members, as Matt Glassman, a Georgetown political scientist, has said. She could also woo members with offers specific to them: committee assignments, fund-raising help or promises to push particular issues. The biggest reason to think she may yet survive is the lack of a credible challenger for the job, at least so far. My own view, as I’ve told you before, is that Pelosi is still the Democrats’ best option. She has been the most effective speaker, from either party, in decades, as Paul Krugman has noted. She pushed through major legislation during the Obama presidency, including Obamacare (which some people fairly call Pelosicare), and she has been effective during the Trump presidency as well. “Even with Republicans in the majority and Trump in the White House, she has been notching wins for the Democrats,” including favorable spending bills, as Time Magazine’s Molly Ball said on yesterday’s episode of Ezra Klein’s Vox podcast. Trump himself may realize that Pelosi is his most effective House adversary, which would explain why he praised her last weekend, perhaps in an effort to undermine her with Democrats. But it’s also true that American voters keep demonstrating that they want change, which Pelosi, who’s 78 and has been in charge of the House Democrats since 2003, does not represent. Neither do her top two House deputies, who are 78 and 79 years old. Democrats need a transition plan, even if it’s one they don’t yet publicly announce. The best part of the current rebellion is that it puts pressure on Pelosi to start planning this transition. Ultimately, the best outcome would be her critics winning some concessions — and then enough of them backing down to let her become speaker again. One angle to watch: Several of the holdouts represent safe districts — that is, they are not vulnerable to Republican challengers who could criticize them for supporting Pelosi, as Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report notes. These safe members are the ones who should be most willing to compromise and eventually support Pelosi. If they instead hold firm and vulnerable House Democrats are the ones to vote for her, it could become a campaign issue in 2020 that costs those members their seats, Walter notes, which in turn could cost the Democrats House control. The full Opinion report from The Times follows, including a dialogue on politics between my colleagues Gail Collins and Bret Stephens.

So Much for Bipartisanship, Eh Mitch? Damon Winter/The New York Times By THE EDITORIAL BOARD If he wants a unified Senate, Mr. McConnell would be smart to allow a vote on criminal justice reform.

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In Case You Missed It Go Ahead, Democrats. Fight Over Nancy Pelosi. By MICHELLE COTTLE Just get it out of your systems now, please.

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Listen to “The Argument” podcast every Thursday morning, with Ross Douthat, Michelle Goldberg and David Leonhardt.

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